Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
32 0x32be…6da7 sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$246 · open +$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%36W / 41L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$281est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$1,059
14 days−$1,940
30 days+$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,570
other 16% −$460
world 4% −$866
crypto 2% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.6% -30.0% 40% 40% -28.6%
≤30d 67 +2.9% -6.9% 48% 43% -7.2%
≤90d 77 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 43% -9.7%
all 77 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 43% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 43% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 43% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 42% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 34% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$247 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$481
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$174
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses36 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$281
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage43d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 45¢ 70¢ $307 $481 +$174 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $393 +$430 +109%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $498 −$106 -21%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $291 −$287 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $405 −$400 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $4 +$3 +83%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $809 +$475 +59%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1,011 +$453 +45%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,040 −$1,028 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $498 −$492 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $108 −$107 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $173 −$171 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $105 +$68 +65%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $417 −$411 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 +$218 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $300 −$296 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $889 −$876 -99%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $19 −$4 -19%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $31 −$11 -34%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $26 −$7 -27%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $118 −$21 -18%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $64 −$4 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $205 −$31 -15%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$24 -24%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $309 −$59 -19%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $312 −$9 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $329 −$19 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $203 +$4 +2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $335 −$4 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $568 −$563 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 −$170 -77%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $315 +$422 +134%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $483 −$480 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$181 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $196 −$194 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $503 +$156 +31%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$42 +41%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $137 +$85 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$72 +71%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $252 +$109 +43%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $891 +$1,222 +137%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,294 −$1,278 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $625 +$670 +107%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $568 −$561 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $468 +$281 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $50 +$40 +79%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $303 +$11 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $312 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $823 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $392 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 47¢ $392 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $498 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $291 10h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $405 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 98¢ $1,285 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $4 3d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 61¢ $809 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 92¢ $1,464 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1,011 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $1,040 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 61¢ $498 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $108 6d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $173 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $105 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $417 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $418 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $200 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $300 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $889 11d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 11d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 11d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $481.06 · official $481.06 (match) · 189 history records