Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32b8…8927 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,428 (+2%) realized +$2,541 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate74%58W / 20L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$1,521per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1,203
14 days+$553
30 days+$4,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$5,466
other 23% −$1,651
crypto 3% +$88
politics 1% +$87
sports 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.9% -7.8% 73% 9% -14.2%
≤30d 56 -0.1% -9.6% 75% 14% -5.5%
≤90d 78 -1.7% -11.1% 74% 17% -6.8%
all 78 -1.7% -11.1% 74% 17% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 17% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 8% -15.7%
15% -27.3% 4% -23.8%
20% -34.5% 1% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,626) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$180 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$819
Realized+$2,541
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses58 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)78 / 89
History coverage39d
Avg bet$1,521
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $149 $156 +$8 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $112 $113 +$1 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $99 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $79 $86 +$6 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $77 $74 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $52 $65 +$12 (+24%)
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 66¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $147 $3 −$144 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $196 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Zion Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $63 +$3 +5%
Will Deniz Undav be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,095 −$96 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,814 −$33 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $1,626 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +37%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $3,651 −$166 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $13,184 −$913 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $169 −$28 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$1 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $91 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $5,268 −$70 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $102 +$38 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $201 +$11 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $180 −$62 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $5,040 +$377 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$3 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $139 −$23 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $45 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $9,912 +$746 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $896 +$48 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $7,022 +$706 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $865 −$44 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2,909 +$319 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $4,080 +$537 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $11 51m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 51m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $37 38h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $50 38h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $60 38h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 71¢ $124 38h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $20 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $447 38h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 40h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $140 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $141 44h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 45h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $136 45h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $107 45h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $480 47h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $4 47h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $380 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $500 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 51¢ $109 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 51¢ $47 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 55¢ $28 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 66¢ $7 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 78¢ $9 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 80¢ $32 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $818.86 · official $818.88 (match) · 560 history records