Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32b7…cc8f sports 1012 markets active 5d ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$227 (-3%) realized −$227 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%373W / 639L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$38
crypto 15% −$13
other 1% −$19
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 237 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 1% -10.3%
≤90d 1012 -0.5% -10.0% 37% 0% -10.3%
all 1012 -0.5% -10.0% 37% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses373 / 639
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1012 / 1012
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1012 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $20 −$9 -45%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $10 −$9 -92%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 12 $10 −$9 -93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $15 −$4 -30%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $22 −$1 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $20 +$5 +26%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $30 $0 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $23 +$2 +7%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 09 $20 −$9 -46%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $30 −$2 -6%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $16 +$5 +35%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $37 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $24 14d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy $0 16d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur SELL Panna Udvardy $1 16d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Houston Astros $0 16d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 15¢ $2 16d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Houston Astros $1 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves $0 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves $0 16d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners $0 16d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners $0 16d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners $0 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records