Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
32 0x32b7…4638 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
tech 17% −$1
other 17% −$2
politics 9% −$1
economics 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 10 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage103d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $280 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 03 $93 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Mar 18 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Mar 16 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Mar 12 $95 $0 -0%
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? Mar 07 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? Mar 07 $99 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 07 $100 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? SELL No 99¢ $80 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $80 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $93 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $93 20d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $93 20d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $93 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $93 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $93 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $94 64d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $94 64d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $94 91d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 91d
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $95 92d
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $95 92d
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) SELL Yes 99¢ $95 97d
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) BUY Yes 99¢ $95 97d
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $96 101d
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $98 102d
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 102d
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 102d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 94¢ $99 102d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 95¢ $100 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records