Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32b6…372b crypto 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate72%200W / 77L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$18
sports 27% +$20
other 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 187 -13.7% -22.0% 70% 9% -16.4%
≤90d 277 -3.6% -12.8% 72% 16% -9.1%
all 277 -3.6% -12.8% 72% 16% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 16% -9.1%
10% -21.1% 12% -17.8%
15% -28.7% 9% -25.7%
20% -35.7% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses200 / 77
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)277 / 281
History coverage32d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $1 +$1 +118%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner May 23 $2 $0 +17%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 23 $2 $0 +19%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 23 $4 +$2 +49%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 23 $11 −$1 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $5 −$1 -15%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 21 $2 $0 +8%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 19 $4 +$10 +249%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 18 $2 −$1 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 23¢ $1 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 28¢ $1 17d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 28¢ $1 23d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 43¢ $1 23d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $2 23d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 45¢ $1 23d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY Weibo Gaming 17¢ $1 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi SELL Weibo Gaming 12¢ $1 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY JD Gaming 54¢ $1 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY Weibo Gaming 47¢ $1 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY JD Gaming 54¢ $1 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY Weibo Gaming 32¢ $1 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner SELL JD Gaming 100¢ $2 25d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 48¢ $1 25d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 42¢ $1 25d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $2 25d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner SELL JD Gaming 1¢ $0 25d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 46¢ $1 25d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 46¢ $1 25d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 1¢ $1 25d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 4¢ $1 25d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 17¢ $1 25d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 9¢ $1 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q BUY Bilibili Gaming 2¢ $1 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q BUY Bilibili Gaming 2¢ $1 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Weibo Gaming 95¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.99 · official $2.99 (match) · 683 history records