Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32b6…6dea sports 42 markets active 3d ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$873 (-19%) realized −$873 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$967
14 days−$1,004
30 days−$918
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$845
other 2% −$66
crypto 1% −$6
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -38.7% -44.5% 40% 20% -77.7%
≤30d 37 -14.7% -22.8% 41% 24% -27.5%
≤90d 42 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 31% -27.4%
all 42 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 31% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 31% -27.4%
10% -25.0% 21% -34.3%
15% -32.2% 14% -40.7%
20% -38.9% 10% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$53 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$873
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage71d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $35 +$6 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $275 −$40 -15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $972 −$932 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $84 +$21 +25%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $15 +$63 +418%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 04 $811 −$60 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3 $0 -12%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $6 $0 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $420 +$48 +11%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $66 −$56 -85%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $49 +$18 +37%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,061 +$60 +6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $223 +$77 +34%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $15 −$1 -9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $319 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 27 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 26 $2 $0 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $2 +$1 +58%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 06 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 06 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 06 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 05 $1 +$1 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 14¢ $1 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 10¢ $2 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 3¢ $1 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 8¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 6¢ $0 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 32¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 24¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 41¢ $33 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $19 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 16¢ $8 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 79¢ $9 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 72¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 80¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 44¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records