Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32b1…e294 crypto 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,532 (+6%) realized +$1,532 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%126W / 61L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$888
sports 19% +$259
other 17% +$630
world 2% −$278
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.2% -12.4% 70% 61% -8.9%
≤30d 23 -3.2% -12.4% 70% 61% -8.9%
≤90d 67 -8.3% -17.0% 64% 45% -15.9%
all 187 -2.8% -12.0% 67% 47% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 47% -4.2%
10% -20.5% 34% -13.3%
15% -28.1% 22% -21.7%
20% -35.2% 16% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$60 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,532
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses126 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)187 / 187
History coverage228d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 187 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$39 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $47 +$53 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $97 +$23 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $79 −$46 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $110 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $29 +$21 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $24 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $151 −$90 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $37 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $110 −$109 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $95 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 08 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 07 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $80 −$70 -88%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $232 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 22 $90 +$10 +11%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $175 −$69 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 22 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 22 $147 +$53 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 22 $70 +$30 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 22 $95 +$5 +5%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $130 +$70 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 3 Winner Apr 22 $267 −$138 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 22 $40 +$60 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 21 $146 −$136 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 21 $138 +$62 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 21 $107 +$93 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 21 $185 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 21 $141 −$68 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $114 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 21 $109 +$23 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $31 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1241 history records