Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:49:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32ae…1547 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$119 (-33%) realized −$113 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$94
other 32% −$25
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -17.3% -25.2% 37% 37% -46.2%
≤30d 22 -28.6% -35.4% 32% 32% -50.2%
≤90d 22 -28.6% -35.4% 32% 32% -50.2%
all 22 -28.6% -35.4% 32% 32% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 32% -50.2%
10% -41.6% 32% -55.0%
15% -47.2% 32% -59.3%
20% -52.4% 27% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)22 / 29
History coverage17d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$28 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $4 51m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $5 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $5 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 16h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $5 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 40h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 47h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $10 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $5 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.87 · official $92.87 (match) · 42 history records