Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32ad…8c50 sports 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%15W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$4
other 23% −$13
politics 22% −$3
crypto 8% −$1
economics 7% −$1
culture 7% −$1
world 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 25 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 191 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses15 / 176
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage158d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $25 −$1 -3%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 27 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $138 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 09 $95 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $181 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $374 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $181 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $26 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $127 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $102 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $134 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 6h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $25 12d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $15 13d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 13d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 25d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 37d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 37d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $30 71d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $27 71d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $3 71d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $24 71d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $24 71d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $18 71d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $18 72d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $20 72d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $20 72d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $18 72d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $18 72d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $27 72d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $27 73d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $30 73d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $31 73d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $27 73d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $27 73d
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $31 73d
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $31 73d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 73d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 975 history records