Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32ad…5b8c other 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$41
sports 25% −$24
politics 8% −$7
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
crypto 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage127d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $204 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $712 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $264 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $416 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $390 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $162 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $400 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $160 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $546 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $316 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $173 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $489 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $108 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $231 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $328 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $454 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $229 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $130 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 3h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 4h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 5h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 10h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 11h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 13h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 18h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $46 19h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 21h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 22h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 23h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 29h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 31h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $32 32h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $32 34h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 34h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 36h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 37h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 38h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $46 41h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $46 43h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 44h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 45h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 47h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1355 history records