Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32ab…c971 sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-10%) realized −$180 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$222
other 16% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 42% -7.4%
≤30d 13 -6.9% -15.8% 54% 46% -3.0%
≤90d 66 -1.5% -10.8% 44% 35% -18.2%
all 75 -6.3% -15.2% 43% 33% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 33% -19.0%
10% -23.3% 31% -26.8%
15% -30.7% 24% -33.9%
20% -37.5% 19% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 43
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage105d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $29 +$17 +57%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $39 −$7 -18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $34 −$10 -30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $6 +$2 +39%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +93%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$8 +35%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $8 +$12 +152%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 23 $21 +$10 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $219 −$110 -50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $75 +$5 +7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $131 +$9 +7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $36 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $45 −$28 -61%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $8 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $67 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $14 +$4 +30%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 12 $91 +$31 +34%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $90 −$59 -66%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $5 +$10 +184%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $5 +$15 +291%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $13 −$3 -23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $57 −$1 -2%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $68 −$12 -18%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $8 +$11 +136%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $20 +$7 +34%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $11 −$4 -32%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $37 −$3 -9%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $78 +$6 +7%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $4 +$3 +70%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $68 +$5 +7%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $18 +$5 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $4 +$12 +322%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $11 $0 -1%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $8 +$14 +176%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 24 $6 −$5 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $36 +$9 +26%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 18 $48 +$6 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 94¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $29 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $17 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $20 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 33¢ $7 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $8 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $1 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $7 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $11 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $11 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $10 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 12¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 33¢ $6 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 70¢ $23 37h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $20 37h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $24 37h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 38h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $10 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $32 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $8 4d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $32 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 272 history records