Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x32aa…c56e sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,452 (+21%) realized +$8,383 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$803per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$423est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$6,124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$231
30 days+$8,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$4,959
other 28% +$2,740
crypto 1% +$525
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 46 +14.6% +3.6% 59% 54% +12.4%
≤90d 48 +9.8% -0.7% 56% 52% +12.3%
all 48 +9.8% -0.7% 56% 52% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 52% +12.3%
10% -10.2% 52% +1.5%
15% -18.9% 52% -8.3%
20% -26.8% 52% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,035) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$747 vs −$572 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$6,124
Realized+$8,383
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$423
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage31d
Avg bet$803
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 43¢ 44¢ $5,250 $5,311 +$61 (+1%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $804 $813 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $269 +$231 +86%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $1,074 +$787 +73%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $1,562 −$1,539 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,529 −$1,507 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $895 +$1,105 +124%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $1,869 +$1,631 +87%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $557 +$443 +79%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1,748 +$1,387 +79%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $259 +$251 +97%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $375 +$525 +140%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $677 −$666 -98%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,093 −$1,076 -98%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $1,095 −$1,080 -99%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $437 −$430 -98%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $2,111 +$1,711 +81%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $678 +$722 +107%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $679 +$621 +92%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $369 −$363 -98%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $1,025 +$1,375 +134%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $2,054 −$2,024 -98%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $547 +$453 +83%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $567 −$67 -12%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $875 +$1,125 +129%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $1,672 +$1,328 +79%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $937 +$1,063 +114%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $680 +$620 +91%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $235 −$234 -100%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $502 −$495 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $248 −$245 -99%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $257 +$249 +97%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $257 +$249 +97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) May 31 $519 −$515 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) May 31 $204 −$200 -98%
Will IK Sirius win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $487 +$513 +105%
Will GAIS win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $416 +$504 +121%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $537 +$463 +86%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1,035 +$895 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $316 −$310 -98%
GAIS vs. Kalmar FF: O/U 2.5 May 30 $152 +$148 +97%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $149 −$147 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $187 +$13 +7%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1,741 +$1,759 +101%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $26 −$26 -99%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $409 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $667 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $409 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $667 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $2,670 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $667 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $667 1h
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $269 13d
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,025 15d
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,015 15d
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $547 15d
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $48 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $82 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $1 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $1 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $1 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $1 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $5 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $9 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $14 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $7 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $13 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $25 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $935 15d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $438 15d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $1 16d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 44¢ $895 16d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 53¢ $491 16d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 53¢ $5 16d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 53¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,123.77 · official $6,123.77 (match) · 192 history records