Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32a3…dd39 crypto 253 markets active 6d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$166 (-18%) realized −$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%81W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$167
politics 6% −$6
other 3% −$4
sports 1% −$5
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -33.4% -39.7% 29% 29% -41.5%
≤30d 253 -27.0% -33.9% 32% 30% -27.8%
≤90d 253 -27.0% -33.9% 32% 30% -27.8%
all 253 -27.0% -33.9% 32% 30% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 30% -27.8%
10% -40.3% 30% -34.7%
15% -46.0% 23% -41.0%
20% -51.3% 22% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses81 / 172
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)253 / 253
History coverage23d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 253 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 19? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -190%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 591 history records