Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x329a…01bd other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%47W / 68L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$7
other 30% −$1
sports 25% +$4
politics 6% +$1
finance 1% −$2
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 41 -3.2% -12.4% 41% 0% -9.5%
all 115 -2.0% -11.3% 41% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.8% 1% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses47 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage462d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 45¢ 74¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $112 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $190 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $68 +$2 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $100 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $246 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $207 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $439 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $274 +$9 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $109 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $115 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $92 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $87 +$6 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $86 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $81 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $220 −$4 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $176 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $29 −$4 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $87 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $67 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $102 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $4 −$1 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $190 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $91 −$2 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $798 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $999 −$5 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $999 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $246 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $1,097 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $995 +$3 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $617 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 18 $1 $0 -5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 18 $2 +$1 +31%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 18 $8 $0 -3%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jul 17 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $19 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $9 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $84 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $112 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $28 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $99 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $100 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $96 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $100 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $74 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $80 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $69 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $66 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $99 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $100 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $53 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $47 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $99 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 487 history records