Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
32 0x3299…0b7a sports 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$274 (+5%) realized +$274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%48W / 43L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$283
world 6% −$14
politics 3% −$4
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% −$6
other 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -13.5% -21.7% 12% 0% -15.5%
≤30d 24 -13.5% -21.7% 12% 0% -15.5%
≤90d 91 -9.7% -18.3% 53% 35% -5.1%
all 91 -9.7% -18.3% 53% 35% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 35% -5.1%
10% -26.1% 20% -14.1%
15% -33.3% 10% -22.4%
20% -39.8% 5% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses48 / 43
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage61d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, Jun 28 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc Jun 28 $30 −$5 -17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele Jun 28 $4 −$2 -45%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 28 $22 $0 -2%
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? Jun 27 $3 −$1 -46%
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary Jun 27 $46 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 26 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Jun 26 $43 −$2 -6%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Jun 26 $81 −$7 -8%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Jun 26 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 Jun 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 Jun 26 $1 $0 -8%
Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3 Jun 26 $1 $0 -5%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Jun 25 $19 −$3 -14%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 25 $22 +$1 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 25 $26 $0 +2%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 25 $9 −$1 -9%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J Jun 25 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 20 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 25 $14 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $75 −$68 -91%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $170 +$33 +20%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $74 +$19 +25%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $62 −$27 -43%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 11 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $44 −$34 -77%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $77 +$3 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 10 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $130 −$33 -25%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $124 +$52 +42%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 10 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 10 $243 +$57 +23%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 09 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 09 $65 +$35 +54%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 09 $52 +$18 +35%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $80 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 09 $5 −$2 -42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $64 +$12 +19%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 08 $112 +$63 +56%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 08 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 08 $121 +$12 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 08 $2 −$2 -76%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 08 $60 +$34 +57%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $83 +$11 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL No 91¢ $46 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc SELL No 51¢ $25 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL No 57¢ $28 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY No 57¢ $29 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc BUY No 60¢ $30 2h
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele SELL No 4¢ $2 5h
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY No 7¢ $4 5h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 43¢ $21 8h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 43¢ $22 11h
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 27h
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 27h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary SELL Yes 28¢ $14 28h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 29¢ $15 28h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary SELL No 64¢ $32 33h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY No 63¢ $32 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $30 40h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 40h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 40h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 44h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 44h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 74¢ $37 2d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 75¢ $38 2d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 2d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 2d
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $40 2d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 2d
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $43 2d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2d
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL No 60¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 293 history records