Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3297…bf09 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate4%5W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$17
politics 24% −$10
sports 9% −$58
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 113 -3.6% -12.8% 4% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses5 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage128d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $235 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $196 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $412 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $246 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $199 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $427 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $186 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $259 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $261 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $467 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $242 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $212 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $421 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $240 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 4d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 12d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 19d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 20d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $196 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $196 23d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $265 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $265 25d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $211 25d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $211 26d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $184 26d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $184 27d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $246 27d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $246 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 28d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $256 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 330 history records