Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3290…7043 politics 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,275 (+1%) realized +$1,273 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate32%41W / 89L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$731per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$855now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$43
other 33% −$293
sports 17% +$1,616
culture 3% −$3
economics 2% −$1
world 2% +$2
crypto 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 48 +0.6% -9.0% 17% 2% -9.3%
all 130 -0.0% -9.5% 32% 10% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 10% -8.3%
10% -18.2% 10% -17.1%
15% -26.1% 7% -25.1%
20% -33.3% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$942) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$8 · ×5.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$855
Realized+$1,273
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses41 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage155d
Avg bet$731
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $551 $553 +$2 (+0%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $302 $302 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $234 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $2,054 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,818 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $719 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 13 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,444 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $884 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $998 −$1 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $809 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $206 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $418 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $376 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $3,841 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,761 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $190 +$1 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $217 +$1 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $366 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $224 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $313 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $313 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $6,493 −$7 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $846 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $676 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,414 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,466 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,412 −$1 -0%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 07 $556 +$180 +32%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $62 $0 +0%
Spread: 76ers (-9.5) Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Kings vs. Golden Knights Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $302 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $233 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $234 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $339 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $339 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $391 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $392 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $551 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $718 11d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $719 12d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $740 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $741 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $859 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $861 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $766 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $768 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $660 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $661 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $883 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $884 15d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $882 18d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $883 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $997 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $998 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $809 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $809 23d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $716 23d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $718 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $854.78 · official $854.78 (match) · 413 history records