Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3290…1c5e other 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$24
14 days−$34
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$45
sports 22% −$20
politics 11% +$4
culture 8% −$11
economics 7% −$10
crypto 4% −$6
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage143d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $724 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $147 −$1 -1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $898 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $363 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $340 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $367 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $378 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $673 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $823 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $297 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $890 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $681 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $643 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $438 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $271 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $396 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $271 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 13m
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 5h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 6h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 9h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 11h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 12h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 14h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 14h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $17 15h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 16h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 18h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 19h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 34h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 35h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 36h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 38h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $61 40h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $61 41h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 43h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 44h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1443 history records