Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3290…53cb weather 563 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,675 (-21%) realized −$4,678 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%50W / 505L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$387
7 days−$351
14 days+$1,141
30 days+$1,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% +$830
other 22% −$4,941
crypto 11% −$613
sports 1% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -58.2% -62.2% 11% 11% -13.1%
≤30d 125 -55.1% -59.4% 14% 14% -1.2%
≤90d 555 -50.2% -54.9% 9% 9% -29.7%
all 555 -50.2% -54.9% 9% 9% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.9% 9% -29.7%
10% ← realistic here -59.2% 9% -36.4%
15% -63.2% 9% -42.6%
20% -66.8% 9% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -70% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$30 · ×6.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$4,678
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses50 / 505
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)555 / 563
History coverage90d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 29? Yes 13¢ 25¢ $32 $59 +$27 (+86%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on June 29? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $32 $13 −$19 (-60%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 30? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 29? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 30? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 29? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 29? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 30? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 28? Jun 28 $21 +$152 +728%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $34 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $346 +$361 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $133 −$128 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $428 −$413 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 28? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 28? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 28? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 28? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $201 −$193 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 27? Jun 27 $42 −$40 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1,078 +$1,914 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $416 −$399 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $138 −$132 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $87 −$83 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $144 −$140 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? Jun 25 $978 −$953 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? Jun 25 $249 −$239 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $755 +$1,532 +203%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 24? Jun 24 $105 −$100 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $211 −$205 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $1,046 +$1,246 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $240 −$232 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $176 −$170 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $42 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $57 −$55 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $153 −$148 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $931 −$905 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 −$481 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $132 −$126 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 22? Jun 22 $23 −$22 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $927 +$1,386 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $539 −$517 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $223 −$213 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 33m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 29? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $707 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 53¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 52¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 29? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 29? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.78 · official $104.25 · 2208 history records