Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
32 0x328e…4475 world 98 markets active 3d ago coverage 137d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,068 (+17%) realized +$1,787 · open −$719
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%36W / 50L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$213
14 days+$56
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$1,204
crypto 12% −$573
other 6% +$104
sports 3% +$88
finance 2% +$132
politics 0% +$10
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +315.0% +275.4% 67% 67% +39.9%
≤30d 12 +170.2% +144.4% 50% 50% -2.3%
≤90d 46 +50.9% +36.5% 48% 48% -7.1%
all 86 +30.9% +18.4% 42% 42% +20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.4% 42% +20.2%
10% +7.1% 40% +8.7%
15% -3.3% 38% -1.8%
20% -12.7% 34% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$42 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$1,787
Unrealized−$719
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses36 / 50
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions12
Markets (closed)86 / 98
History coverage137d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $150 $69 −$81 (-54%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $223 $60 −$163 (-73%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 26¢ 46¢ $30 $54 +$24 (+79%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 54¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+37%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $168 $35 −$133 (-79%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 65¢ 16¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $35 $12 −$23 (-65%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $190 $11 −$179 (-94%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-51%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-41%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $65 $6 −$59 (-91%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $30 $4 −$26 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$132 +132%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $220 −$201 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $10 +$88 +879%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $20 +$131 +657%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $20 +$83 +413%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $230 −$157 -68%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 28 $20 +$47 +233%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $20 +$57 +287%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 13 $160 +$176 +110%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 04 $101 +$12 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 30 $50 +$135 +270%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $20 +$70 +349%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $160 −$30 -19%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $40 +$8 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Apr 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $110 −$110 -100%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $50 +$118 +235%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $120 +$61 +51%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $60 +$43 +71%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $30 +$57 +190%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 07 $310 −$310 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 07 $30 +$67 +223%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Mar 28 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $30 +$77 +257%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $100 +$66 +66%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 23 $15 +$19 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 202 Mar 23 $30 +$12 +39%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Mar 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 23 $200 +$86 +43%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Mar 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $232 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $73 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $210 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $200 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 11d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 97¢ $77 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 30¢ $20 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 25¢ $20 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 18¢ $30 27d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY No 13¢ $20 28d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY No 22¢ $30 28d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 29d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 29d
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 39d
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $60 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.19 · official $333.19 (match) · 268 history records