Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x328e…1e35 crypto 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$752 (-6%) realized −$659 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate69%106W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$503
7 days+$503
14 days+$521
30 days−$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$516
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +30.5% +18.1% 82% 76% +10.2%
≤30d 153 -4.1% -13.2% 69% 52% -11.2%
≤90d 153 -4.1% -13.2% 69% 52% -11.2%
all 153 -4.1% -13.2% 69% 52% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 52% -11.2%
10% -21.5% 33% -19.7%
15% -29.1% 24% -27.4%
20% -36.1% 15% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$65 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized−$659
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses106 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage24d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 55¢ 26¢ $180 $87 −$93 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $185 +$120 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $184 +$88 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $207 +$205 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$35 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $184 +$82 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $199 +$69 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $76 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $182 +$47 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$82 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $75 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $264 −$260 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $262 +$78 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $218 +$45 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$31 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $96 −$76 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $91 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$55 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$76 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$46 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$41 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$65 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $251 −$243 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 02 $133 +$119 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 02 $204 −$186 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 02 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 02 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 02 $252 −$118 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 02 $251 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $186 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $185 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $184 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $412 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $266 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $184 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $268 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $184 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $264 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $340 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $262 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $263 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $218 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.73 · official $386.73 (match) · 329 history records