Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x328e…eb58 crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$344 (-9%) realized −$344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%42W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$134
14 days−$134
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$591
sports 2% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -57.0% -61.1% 30% 30% -46.9%
≤30d 10 -57.0% -61.1% 30% 30% -46.9%
≤90d 33 -32.0% -38.5% 39% 39% -37.9%
all 91 -13.7% -22.0% 46% 37% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 37% -22.5%
10% -29.4% 32% -29.9%
15% -36.2% 30% -36.7%
20% -42.5% 25% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses42 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage122d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 23 $51 +$33 +66%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $25 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $57 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 05 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 05 $32 −$17 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 05 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 05 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 05 $11 +$28 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 05 $26 +$13 +51%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? May 05 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 05 $21 +$23 +109%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 09 $117 −$111 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$31 +156%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? Apr 09 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 29 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 29 $99 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 29 $81 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 29 $58 +$23 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 29 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 29 $31 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 29 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 25 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 25 $214 +$9 +4%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 25 $208 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 25 $131 +$77 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 25 $157 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Feb 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 25 $15 +$16 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 25 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 25 $30 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $35 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $25 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $93 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $9 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $39 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records