Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x328d…c041 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$669 (+62%) realized +$750 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 37L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$578
world 11% −$79
sports 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +332.6% +291.4% 100% 100% +135.8%
≤30d 52 +19.5% +8.1% 29% 29% +63.1%
≤90d 52 +19.5% +8.1% 29% 29% +63.1%
all 52 +19.5% +8.1% 29% 29% +63.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 29% +63.1%
10% -2.2% 29% +47.4%
15% -11.7% 25% +33.2%
20% -20.3% 25% +20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$11 · ×5.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$750
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage28d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $105 $26 −$79 (-75%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$30 +116%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$16 +549%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 23 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? May 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23? May 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 22 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $11 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 22 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 22 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 22 $29 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $32 +$111 +348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 22 $11 +$36 +339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 22 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 22 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 22 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 22 $32 −$25 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 22 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 21 $17 +$16 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 21 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 21 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 21 $26 +$123 +464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 21 $27 +$571 +2140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $130 −$14 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 21 $5 +$14 +262%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 May 18-24? May 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 21 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 21 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 8m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $20 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $25 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $19 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? BUY No 1¢ $11 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $17 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.88 · official $53.88 (match) · 109 history records