Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
32 0x328c…6715 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+7%) realized +$84 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%30W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$16
14 days+$62
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$70
other 36% +$3
crypto 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 37% -7.5%
≤30d 43 -5.4% -14.4% 58% 49% -2.8%
≤90d 57 -12.8% -21.1% 53% 46% -5.6%
all 57 -12.8% -21.1% 53% 46% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 46% -5.6%
10% -28.6% 37% -14.6%
15% -35.5% 23% -22.9%
20% -41.8% 14% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses30 / 27
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage36d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$2 -8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $35 +$22 +62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $40 +$5 +12%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$8 +37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +36%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 +$9 +30%
Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Weston McKennie: 2+ shots Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $119 +$23 +20%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$1 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $67 −$2 -3%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 17 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $30 −$19 -61%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $32 +$10 +32%
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$3 -17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $48 +$11 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $37 +$10 +28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $39 −$1 -3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $23 +$7 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 12 $15 +$8 +53%
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $41 +$2 +4%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $3 +$1 +34%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $8 −$8 -99%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $9 +$3 +33%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch May 31 $44 +$5 +11%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 23 $22 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 17 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 17 $3 +$3 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $8 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $19 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $30 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $30 5h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $30 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $57 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $35 32h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $45 40h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $40 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 86¢ $30 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $20 42h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Under 81¢ $28 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $21 46h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 2d
Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots BUY No $1 2d
Weston McKennie: 2+ shots BUY No $1 2d
Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots BUY No $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $56 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $54 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.16 · official $102.16 (match) · 124 history records