Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x328b…6885 other 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$799 (+1%) realized +$799 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate24%32W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$1,120per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$737now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$18
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$77
other 42% +$876
sports 11% −$47
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$4
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
world 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 133 +1.8% -7.9% 24% 14% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 14% -9.1%
10% -16.7% 14% -17.8%
15% -24.8% 11% -25.7%
20% -32.2% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,429) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$11 · ×5.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$737
Realized+$799
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses32 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,120
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $737 $737 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 28 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $2,680 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2,330 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,806 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,248 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,961 −$3 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,698 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,684 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,540 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $3,033 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $326 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 03 $559 +$1 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $369 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,820 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,665 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,954 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,545 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,250 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 02 $187 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 02 $362 +$2 +0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $745 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2,442 −$3 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,291 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,358 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $5,526 −$6 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $3,465 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $558 11m
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $559 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $556 4h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $557 6h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $559 22h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $559 24h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $561 27h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $562 29h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $559 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $560 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $556 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $557 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $561 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $562 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $562 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $563 9d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $738 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $795 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $795 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,298 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,300 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $866 14d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $868 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,301 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,303 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,344 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,216 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,218 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,203 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737.44 · official $737.44 (match) · 446 history records