Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3288…3a86 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% $0
world 21% +$3
politics 20% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 5% −$2
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +17.2% +6.0% 22% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 9 +17.2% +6.0% 22% 11% -9.0%
all 39 +4.1% -5.9% 21% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 3% -9.3%
10% -14.9% 3% -18.0%
15% -23.1% 3% -25.9%
20% -30.6% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage283d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $44 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $28 +$2 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $43 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $47 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 24 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 18 $32 $0 +1%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 13 $31 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $46 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $3 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $11 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $10 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $4 31h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $0 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $14 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $15 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $43 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $23 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $47 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $47 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $15 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $46 25d
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $28 266d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $5 266d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.96 · official $46.18 (match) · 120 history records