Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
32 0x3287…25f7 sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,517 (+6%) realized +$2,539 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%47W / 34L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$469per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$146
14 days+$146
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$2,186
culture 6% +$97
sports 5% +$234
politics 4% +$12
tech 0% +$7
world 0% −$21
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.0% +3.2% 69% 62% +12.5%
≤30d 15 +14.1% +3.2% 67% 60% +22.4%
≤90d 22 +23.3% +11.5% 73% 55% +18.6%
all 81 +22.9% +11.2% 58% 35% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 35% -4.1%
10% +0.5% 31% -13.2%
15% -9.2% 22% -21.6%
20% -18.1% 19% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +45% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$12 · ×5.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.19 per $1 lost it wins $7.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized+$2,539
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses47 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)81 / 90
History coverage316d
Avg bet$469
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 13¢ 54¢ $30 $119 +$89 (+297%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 50¢ 14¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-71%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 60¢ 61¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 24¢ $70 $7 −$64 (-91%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $524 +$149 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $97 +$124 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $5 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $23 −$13 -54%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +11%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $1 +$3 +291%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the Detroit Pistons finish with the best record in the NBA? Mar 10 $20 −$13 -68%
Warriors vs. Thunder Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $70 −$42 -60%
Pistons vs. Spurs Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Spurs Feb 22 $5 −$3 -68%
Grizzlies vs. Heat Feb 22 $10 −$9 -92%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 21 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 02 $50 +$100 +203%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bulls vs. Nets Jan 17 $2 +$2 +80%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $11 +$16 +140%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 13 $50 −$21 -43%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 11 $5 +$11 +212%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jan 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Jan 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 10 $2 +$28 +1420%
Kings vs. Warriors Jan 10 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Magic Jan 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hornets vs. Thunder Jan 07 $10 +$8 +82%
Nuggets vs. 76ers Jan 07 $5 +$23 +456%
Bucks vs. Kings Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Jazz vs. Clippers Jan 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Kings Jan 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 24h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 77¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 73¢ $121 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 9d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $97 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 11¢ $3 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 32¢ $15 20d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 93¢ $10 38d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 57¢ $10 38d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $3 38d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 75¢ $0 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.12 · official $287.23 (match) · 222 history records