trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | +14.0% | +3.2% | 69% | 62% | +12.5% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +14.1% | +3.2% | 67% | 60% | +22.4% |
| ≤90d | 22 | +23.3% | +11.5% | 73% | 55% | +18.6% |
| all | 81 | +22.9% | +11.2% | 58% | 35% | -4.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +11.2% | 35% | -4.1% |
| 10% | +0.5% | 31% | -13.2% |
| 15% | -9.2% | 22% | -21.6% |
| 20% | -18.1% | 19% | -29.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 13¢ | 54¢ | $30 | $119 | +$89 (+297%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 95¢ | 96¢ | $104 | $105 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | 87¢ | 86¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 50¢ | 14¢ | $50 | $14 | −$36 (-71%) |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 60¢ | 61¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 24¢ | 2¢ | $70 | $7 | −$64 (-91%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 16¢ | 2¢ | $15 | $2 | −$13 (-85%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET | Jun 18 | $3 | $0 | +13% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | Jun 18 | $5 | −$4 | -94% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $5 | +$2 | +40% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET | Jun 17 | $6 | +$2 | +25% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | Jun 17 | $5 | −$4 | -82% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET | Jun 17 | $5 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $10 | +$4 | +44% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$5 | +50% |
| Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $1 | +$3 | +325% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands | Jun 14 | $10 | +$3 | +29% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $524 | +$149 | +28% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $97 | +$124 | +129% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $18 | −$18 | -98% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | May 18 | $30 | +$3 | +10% |
| Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $18 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | May 13 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 11 | $23 | −$13 | -54% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 07 | $5 | +$1 | +29% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | May 06 | $5 | +$1 | +11% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 06 | $1 | +$3 | +291% |
| Celtics vs. Spurs | Mar 11 | $2 | −$2 | -94% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons finish with the best record in the NBA? | Mar 10 | $20 | −$13 | -68% |
| Warriors vs. Thunder | Mar 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Grizzlies | Mar 08 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Mar 07 | $70 | −$42 | -60% |
| Pistons vs. Spurs | Mar 06 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Spurs | Feb 22 | $5 | −$3 | -68% |
| Grizzlies vs. Heat | Feb 22 | $10 | −$9 | -92% |
| Clippers vs. Lakers | Feb 21 | $15 | +$4 | +29% |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? | Feb 02 | $50 | +$100 | +203% |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? | Jan 24 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Trail Blazers | Jan 18 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Bulls vs. Nets | Jan 17 | $2 | +$2 | +80% |
| Clippers vs. Raptors | Jan 17 | $11 | +$16 | +140% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Jan 13 | $50 | −$21 | -43% |
| Rockets vs. Trail Blazers | Jan 11 | $5 | +$11 | +212% |
| Clippers vs. Pistons | Jan 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Bulls | Jan 11 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Nuggets | Jan 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Grizzlies | Jan 10 | $2 | +$28 | +1420% |
| Kings vs. Warriors | Jan 10 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Magic | Jan 10 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Thunder | Jan 07 | $10 | +$8 | +82% |
| Nuggets vs. 76ers | Jan 07 | $5 | +$23 | +456% |
| Bucks vs. Kings | Jan 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Raptors | Jan 04 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Clippers | Jan 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Kings | Jan 02 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |