Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3284…0673 crypto 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$238 (+12%) realized +$238 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%52W / 122L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$352
7 days+$352
14 days+$213
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$16
other 7% +$133
politics 0% −$10
sports 0% −$5
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +11.3% +0.7% 43% 43% +21.1%
≤30d 57 -17.7% -25.5% 33% 33% +5.7%
≤90d 174 -14.8% -22.9% 30% 29% -4.9%
all 174 -14.8% -22.9% 30% 29% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 29% -4.9%
10% -30.3% 29% -14.0%
15% -37.0% 28% -22.3%
20% -43.2% 28% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$10 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$238
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses52 / 122
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage55d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$549 +1041%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$19 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $136 +$143 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $602 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 355 history records