Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

32 0x327d…7357 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized +$2 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day8.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+33.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+47.8%	+33.7%	100%	100%	+33.7%
≤30d	1	+47.8%	+33.7%	100%	100%	+33.7%
≤90d	1	+47.8%	+33.7%	100%	100%	+33.7%
all	1	+47.8%	+33.7%	100%	100%	+33.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+33.7%	100%	+33.7%
10%	+20.9%	100%	+20.9%
15%	+9.2%	100%	+9.2%
20%	-1.5%	0%	-1.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +48% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized+$2

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions8

Markets (closed)1 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day8.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	36¢	34¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-6%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	24¢	21¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-12%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$1	59m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$5	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$5	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	25h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	25h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	25h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	36¢	$5	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.54 · official $39.54 (match) · 10 history records