Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x327a…2381 sports 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,452 (+10%) realized +$14,453 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%56W / 110L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$873per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$1,262est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$659
14 days+$691
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$12,744
other 3% −$1,203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -69.8% -72.7% 25% 25% -2.0%
≤30d 21 -69.7% -72.6% 19% 19% -11.9%
≤90d 114 -40.1% -45.8% 32% 23% -4.5%
all 166 -24.2% -31.4% 34% 25% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.4% 25% -0.7%
10% -38.0% 13% -10.2%
15% ← realistic here -44.0% 9% -18.9%
20% -49.5% 8% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$672) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$573 vs −$189 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$14,453
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses56 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,262
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage127d
Avg bet$873
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Texas Super Kings 46¢ 46¢ $185 $184 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $236 −$230 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $670 −$580 -86%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $7,243 +$1,505 +21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $37 −$37 -99%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Comple Jun 09 $48 +$32 +67%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $119 −$89 -75%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $4 −$2 -55%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies May 29 $107 −$66 -62%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $1,545 −$103 -7%
Will New Zealand win? May 29 $6 −$2 -35%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 28 $410 +$91 +22%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Nepal May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essex May 26 $320 +$52 +16%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $4,401 −$570 -13%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Rwanda May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Botswana May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $61 −$59 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $121 −$121 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $88 −$88 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Switzerland vs Croatia May 19 $12 +$1 +5%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Bangladesh win? May 19 $130 −$127 -97%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs P May 18 $751 +$76 +10%
Will the match end in a draw? May 18 $18 −$18 -97%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $456 −$48 -10%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $626 −$232 -37%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Austria vs Malta May 16 $1,098 +$22 +2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $3,646 −$57 -2%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $170 −$146 -86%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $2,852 +$1,827 +64%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA May 14 $197 −$55 -28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina May 13 $330 +$670 +203%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $3,165 +$110 +4%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 13 $3,017 +$655 +22%
Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade May 13 $4 −$2 -66%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $1,380 −$22 -2%
Will Bangladesh win? May 12 $458 −$371 -81%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $96 −$6 -6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $5,559 +$2,864 +52%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $4,405 +$594 +14%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $5,753 +$1,277 +22%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $217 −$136 -63%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $3,420 −$420 -12%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $4 −$3 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $3,986 +$1,314 +33%
ODI Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe May 04 $5 $0 -3%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Hyderabad Kingsmen May 03 $456 +$144 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 46¢ $160 1h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 45¢ $2 1h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 45¢ $26 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $8 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 2¢ $10 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 2¢ $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 4¢ $35 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 3¢ $7 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 3¢ $45 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 2¢ $4 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 3¢ $29 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 4¢ $41 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $35 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $16 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan 16¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.92 · official $183.92 (match) · 2776 history records