Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
32 0x3279…1d5c crypto 1756 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$418 (+0%) realized +$418 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%1699W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$713
7 days−$714
14 days−$774
30 days−$856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$372
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -9.2% -17.9% 88% 3% -88.0%
≤30d 530 -2.7% -11.9% 94% 3% -13.9%
≤90d 1754 -0.6% -10.1% 96% 3% -10.2%
all 1767 -0.7% -10.1% 96% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$73 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1699 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1767 / 1756
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$80
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1767 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records