Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x3279…4d01 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$61 (+1%) realized +$57 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate98%46W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$169
other 22% +$13
politics 12% +$135
world 12% +$77
tech 8% +$3
economics 2% +$2
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 3 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 9 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.2%
all 47 +5.3% -4.8% 98% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 9% -8.9%
10% -13.9% 9% -17.6%
15% -22.2% 9% -25.6%
20% -29.8% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$210 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses46 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage616d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $190 $193 +$3 (+2%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $166 $167 +$1 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 24 $80 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $210 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 07 $216 +$2 +1%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? May 25 $202 +$3 +2%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 08 $200 +$3 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 08 $210 +$7 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $160 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 11 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 28 $245 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 06 $400 +$17 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 2? Feb 27 $110 +$1 +0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 27 $261 +$7 +3%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 02 $371 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 6? Jan 21 $121 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11? Jan 21 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 06 $69 +$2 +3%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 06 $150 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Jan 06 $154 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in November 2025? Dec 17 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November Nov 17 $171 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on November 12? Nov 17 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on October 18? Nov 11 $56 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 18? Nov 11 $300 +$6 +2%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 18 $155 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on Septembe Oct 18 $200 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on September 5? Sep 05 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15? Sep 05 $175 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Sep 05 $190 +$1 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 14 $361 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jul 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 02 $231 +$1 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Seoul (서울) in the 2025 Korean Presidential elec Jun 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Kor Jun 27 $140 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 03 $155 +$1 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 03 $170 $0 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 13 $30 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 13 $92 +$59 +64%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? May 13 $160 +$2 +1%
Will Kanye launch a token on multiple blockchains? Apr 07 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 by February 28 2025? Mar 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 25 $201 +$1 +1%
Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6? Jan 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $192 +$114 +60%
Will Trump say "Nazi" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29? Nov 19 $4 +$3 +72%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 19 $5 +$6 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 98¢ $80 16d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $190 16d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $166 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $210 30d
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? BUY Yes 98¢ $202 46d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $216 46d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $200 73d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $210 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $250 88d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $160 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? BUY No 99¢ $245 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY No 96¢ $400 116d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the BUY Yes 97¢ $261 141d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 2? BUY No 100¢ $110 141d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $371 154d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $121 168d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $260 168d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $150 188d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m BUY Yes 99¢ $154 188d
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $300 218d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $69 218d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November BUY No 99¢ $171 224d
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on November 12? BUY No 100¢ $180 224d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on October 18? BUY No 100¢ $56 248d
Ethereum Up or Down on October 18? BUY Up 98¢ $300 248d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on Septembe BUY No 97¢ $200 274d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 99¢ $155 291d
Ethereum Up or Down on September 5? BUY Up 99¢ $210 291d
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $175 313d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.51 · official $449.51 (match) · 98 history records