Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3278…52be crypto 1351 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
! high turnover
Total PnL −$148 (-2%) realized −$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate64%862W / 489L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$293
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -1.0% -10.5% 98% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 462 +102.9% +83.6% 57% 37% -25.2%
≤90d 1351 +37.3% +24.2% 64% 33% -13.0%
all 1351 +37.3% +24.2% 64% 33% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.2% 33% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here +12.3% 17% -21.3%
15% +1.5% 11% -28.9%
20% -8.5% 8% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +72% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses862 / 489
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1351 / 1351
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1351 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.46 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records