Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
32 0x3277…7b0a other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% $0
world 24% +$3
politics 24% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 4% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 14% -8.6%
≤90d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 14% -8.6%
all 33 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 3% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage283d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $16 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $31 +$3 +11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $68 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $1 $0 -7%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 23? Sep 23 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 22 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 13 $34 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Sep 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $42 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $42 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $35 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $39 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $39 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $4 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $31 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $35 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $29 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $29 30d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 179d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 266d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $14 266d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 266d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $14 266d
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $13 266d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 267d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 267d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 92¢ $23 267d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 92¢ $23 267d
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $21 267d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records