Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x3277…7996 crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$316 (+4%) realized +$316 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%127W / 67L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$19
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$233
other 4% +$21
culture 1% +$2
world 0% −$18
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +41.7% +28.2% 73% 66% -8.6%
≤30d 50 +37.3% +24.2% 74% 66% -8.1%
≤90d 50 +37.3% +24.2% 74% 66% -8.1%
all 194 +8.6% -1.8% 65% 58% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 58% -6.9%
10% -11.2% 44% -15.8%
15% -19.8% 19% -24.0%
20% -27.6% 9% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$19 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses127 / 67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage176d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$17 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 872 history records