Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:29:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3276…241b other 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%16W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$3
other 25% −$5
sports 23% −$5
crypto 8% −$2
economics 8% $0
world 6% −$4
culture 4% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 51 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 204 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses16 / 188
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)204 / 204
History coverage162d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 204 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $24 $0 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $130 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 01 $386 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $65 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $79 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 28 $115 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $117 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 24 $102 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 22 $202 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $32 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $24 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $24 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $31 12d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $31 12d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $30 20d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $30 20d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $26 28d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $26 28d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $33 72d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $33 73d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $25 73d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $25 73d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $33 73d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $33 73d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $26 73d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $26 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $31 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $31 73d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $35 73d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $35 74d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $27 74d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $27 74d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $31 74d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $31 74d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $31 74d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $31 75d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $35 75d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $35 75d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $33 75d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $33 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 775 history records