Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3275…b8ac crypto 808 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,750 (+10%) realized +$5,766 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate82%660W / 144L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$270est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days+$4,739
14 days+$5,031
30 days+$5,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$4,384
crypto 30% +$80
other 24% +$1,124
world 1% −$304
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +7.9% -2.4% 63% 54% +4.4%
≤30d 91 +4.1% -5.8% 62% 55% +2.4%
≤90d 757 -0.4% -9.9% 85% 10% -0.9%
all 804 -1.8% -11.1% 82% 11% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 11% -1.2%
10% -19.6% 9% -10.6%
15% -27.4% 8% -19.3%
20% -34.5% 5% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$48 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$849
Realized+$5,766
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses660 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$270
Open positions2
Markets (closed)804 / 808
History coverage99d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 804 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 60¢ $489 $482 −$7 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Iraq 66¢ 64¢ $375 $366 −$9 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $909 +$63 +7%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 +$327 +65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$75 -50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $563 +$30 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $305 −$180 -59%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$62 -61%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $233 +$202 +87%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$68 -66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$284 +93%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,005 +$215 +21%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $804 −$804 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $454 −$400 -88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,408 +$355 +25%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,711 +$156 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $505 +$68 +14%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $202 +$127 +63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $605 +$228 +38%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $607 +$361 +60%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 −$187 -92%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $118 +$158 +134%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,009 +$30 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $818 +$356 +44%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,273 +$301 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $355 +$264 +74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,010 +$538 +53%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $445 −$445 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $102 +$120 +118%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,301 +$366 +28%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $303 +$145 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $522 +$484 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $566 +$366 +65%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $808 +$409 +51%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $102 −$26 -26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $104 −$81 -78%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $296 −$90 -30%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $111 −$6 -5%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $461 +$282 +61%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $501 +$21 +4%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $293 +$187 +64%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $382 +$18 +5%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $334 +$58 +17%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 10 $979 +$371 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,156 +$132 +11%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 10 $163 +$185 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $555 +$257 +46%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 10 $302 +$108 +36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $102 +$116 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $293 11m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $202 54m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 65¢ $122 55m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $505 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win BUY 38¢ $306 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 71¢ $593 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR BUY 34¢ $102 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $72 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 75¢ $504 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 65¢ $101 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $121 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 72¢ $101 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $50 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 66¢ $253 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $228 14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 15¢ $40 14h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 59¢ $101 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 12¢ $34 16h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $30 17h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 49¢ $102 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $59 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $848.71 · official $1,148.71 · 1902 history records