Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3274…50a9 other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$31 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%6W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$378
7 days−$452
14 days−$815
30 days−$958
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$522
sports 4% +$2
crypto 3% −$26
world 2% −$12
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-73.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -91.2% -92.0% 1% 1% -61.9%
≤30d 284 -70.4% -73.3% 2% 1% -52.9%
≤90d 286 -70.1% -73.0% 2% 1% -52.9%
all 286 -70.1% -73.0% 2% 1% -52.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.0% 1% -52.9%
10% -75.6% 1% -57.4%
15% -77.9% 1% -61.5%
20% -80.1% 0% -65.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses6 / 280
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)286 / 166
History coverage48d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $115 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 50¢ 76¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 33¢ 72¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+114%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+48%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 33¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Singapore vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Libertad vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC end in a dr Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Palestine win on 2026-06-09? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $0 $0 -60%
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Myanmar vs. Guam end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Burundi win on 2026-05-26? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Madagascar end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $117 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $55 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $47 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $47 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 17h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 6d
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.34 · official $152.35 (match) · 728 history records