Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3269…1e7c crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,363 (+4%) realized +$763 · open +$600
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$538per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$12,176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,481
7 days+$1,489
14 days+$1,489
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1,095
other 43% −$287
politics 9% +$195
sports 2% +$30
crypto 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.1% +6.8% 57% 57% +42.9%
≤30d 11 -12.0% -20.4% 45% 45% -11.2%
≤90d 47 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 40% -20.6%
all 47 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 40% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 40% -20.6%
10% -17.5% 40% -28.2%
15% -25.5% 36% -35.1%
20% -32.8% 28% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +35% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$285 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$12,176
Realized+$763
Unrealized+$600
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions10
Markets (closed)47 / 57
History coverage74d
Avg bet$538
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 48¢ $3,337 $3,315 −$23 (-1%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 49¢ 94¢ $1,491 $2,855 +$1,363 (+91%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 59¢ 74¢ $2,031 $2,550 +$519 (+26%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 56¢ 69¢ $1,305 $1,618 +$313 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $735 $743 +$7 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 38¢ 88¢ $189 $438 +$248 (+131%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 54¢ 38¢ $540 $375 −$165 (-31%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 51¢ 4¢ $1,502 $131 −$1,371 (-91%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $200 $116 −$84 (-42%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 24¢ 3¢ $244 $35 −$209 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $2,512 +$1,477 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$9 +201%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $806 −$806 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $1,198 −$1,198 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? May 27 $1,340 +$550 +41%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $148 −$148 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? Apr 26 $713 −$713 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 22 $554 −$554 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $190 −$190 -100%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Apr 18 $267 +$9 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $1,098 −$23 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1,927 −$1,927 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Apr 15 $754 −$754 -100%
Avalanche vs. Oilers Apr 14 $76 +$67 +88%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 14 $51 +$25 +49%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Apr 14 $391 +$26 +7%
Stars vs. Maple Leafs Apr 14 $28 +$8 +28%
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 14 $10 +$13 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$7 -70%
Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31? Apr 13 $35 +$101 +289%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Apr 12 $401 −$401 -100%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Apr 11 $1,385 −$127 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 09 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 09 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 09 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 08 $50 +$14 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $1,020 +$980 +96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $250 +$2,250 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 07 $13 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 07 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Apr 05 $252 −$252 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $142 1h
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $191 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $310 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $49 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 11h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $435 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $330 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $510 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $223 23h
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $925 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $83 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $284 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $8 42h
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $34 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $188 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 41¢ $205 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 43¢ $754 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,176.08 · official $12,176.45 (match) · 445 history records