Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x3268…44c1 crypto 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$142 (+0%) realized +$141 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate82%51W / 11L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$456per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$132
other 22% +$3
crypto 17% +$7
politics 16% −$7
economics 7% $0
world 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 28 +10.0% -0.5% 100% 25% -8.1%
all 62 +5.5% -4.5% 82% 16% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 16% -9.1%
10% -13.7% 8% -17.8%
15% -22.0% 8% -25.8%
20% -29.7% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.99 per $1 lost it wins $8.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses51 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage250d
Avg bet$456
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Warriors Apr 08 $100 +$11 +11%
Mavericks vs. Clippers Apr 08 $193 +$25 +13%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $210 +$15 +7%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $1,892 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $2,085 +$2 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $114 +$55 +49%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $2,048 +$16 +1%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $2 +$2 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $2,131 +$2 +0%
Spurs vs. Heat Apr 06 $2 +$1 +52%
Thunder vs. 76ers Apr 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $51 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 23 $2 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $13 $0 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Nets Mar 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Feb 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $11 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Feb 15 $2 +$1 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Feb 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $20 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 08 $60 +$1 +1%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Dec 02 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 02 $4 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 02 $84 +$1 +1%
Falcons vs. 49ers Nov 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $260 on October 13? Oct 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,100 on October 13? Oct 20 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,600 and $4,700 on October 12? Oct 13 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on October 12? Oct 13 $1,847 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $93 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 31d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 31d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 70d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 70d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 70d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 70d
Rockets vs. Suns BUY Rockets 100¢ $1,892 71d
Mavericks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 89¢ $178 71d
Mavericks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 84¢ $15 71d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,380 72d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $355 72d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $306 72d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 72d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 72d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 72d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 72d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $40 72d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 93¢ $210 72d
Kings vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 90¢ $100 72d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 34¢ $14 72d
76ers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $343 72d
76ers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $44 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.17 · official $183.17 (match) · 370 history records