Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3266…589b crypto 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%108W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +4.7% -5.3% 71% 60% -10.6%
≤30d 35 +4.7% -5.3% 71% 60% -10.6%
≤90d 175 -5.7% -14.7% 62% 54% -12.6%
all 175 -5.7% -14.7% 62% 54% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 54% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 39% -20.9%
15% -30.3% 28% -28.6%
20% -37.1% 19% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$34 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses108 / 67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage40d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 0¢ 55¢ $0 $39 +$39 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $67 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$34 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $172 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $69 +$138 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $163 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$60 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $111 +$19 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$16 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $120 −$115 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $158 −$155 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $184 +$65 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $49 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $96 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $97 −$60 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $76 +$46 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $77 +$23 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $94 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $99 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $100 −$40 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$28 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 23 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 23 $127 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 23 $76 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 23 $62 +$37 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 23 $83 −$30 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 23 $57 −$25 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 23 $51 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 23 $11 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 23 $31 +$31 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 23 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 23 $31 −$28 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 23 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 23 $31 +$13 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $18 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $18 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $62 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.93 · official $42.50 · 1406 history records