Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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32 0x3265…d5b8 sports 408 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,086 (-5%) realized −$12,808 · open −$278
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%183W / 225L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$596per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$451est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$913
7 days+$1,424
14 days+$1,424
30 days+$1,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$9,688
other 3% −$952
world 0% +$127
tech 0% −$12
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +13.0% +2.2% 49% 45% -1.7%
≤30d 55 +13.0% +2.2% 49% 45% -1.7%
≤90d 258 -37.6% -43.5% 28% 24% -27.3%
all 408 -4.9% -13.9% 45% 38% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 38% -13.4%
10% -22.2% 31% -21.7%
15% ← realistic here -29.7% 25% -29.2%
20% -36.6% 21% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$704) neutral
Persistence
early +28% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$322 vs −$308 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$522
Realized−$12,808
Unrealized−$278
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses183 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$451
Open positions3
Markets (closed)408 / 408
History coverage139d ⚠
Avg bet$596
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Under 51¢ 48¢ $510 $480 −$30 (-6%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Under 51¢ 42¢ $51 $42 −$9 (-17%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Under 48¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canucks vs. Kraken Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bears vs. 49ers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 +$151 +314%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1,190 −$620 -52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $831 +$134 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $877 −$21 -2%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $540 −$117 -22%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +96%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $557 −$550 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $307 −$286 -93%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $87 −$85 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $67 −$65 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $279 +$221 +79%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3,127 +$240 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $223 −$223 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $107 −$105 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $123 +$22 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $142 +$142 +100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $39 +$61 +156%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $181 −$178 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $224 −$220 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $250 +$250 +100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $506 +$494 +98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$19 +62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $185 +$315 +170%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $188 +$111 +59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $840 +$841 +100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $476 +$321 +67%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2,935 +$62 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $947 +$1,053 +111%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $106 +$94 +89%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $113 +$87 +76%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $52 +$53 +103%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $73 −$71 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $124 +$83 +67%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $285 −$124 -44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 +$26 +172%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $394 +$323 +82%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $203 +$153 +75%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $69 +$26 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $52 6m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 47¢ $463 6m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $510 9m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $410 13m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 13m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 13m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 13m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 13m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 13m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $34 13m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 80¢ $700 39m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 80¢ $100 42m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $15 47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $14 47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 50¢ $99 49m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $10 50m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $0 50m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $4 50m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 9¢ $19 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 7¢ $21 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 43¢ $423 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 97¢ $988 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $13 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $14 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $22 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $23 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.50 · official $491.50 · 3500 history records