Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3265…6e94 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$359 (-16%) realized −$147 · open −$212
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$135
14 days+$134
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$50
other 18% −$294
crypto 11% −$55
world 9% +$25
culture 5% −$67
tech 0% −$10
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.5% -23.5% 71% 57% +2.8%
≤30d 10 -18.1% -25.9% 60% 50% -1.3%
≤90d 42 -30.1% -36.8% 36% 31% -18.7%
all 42 -30.1% -36.8% 36% 31% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 31% -18.7%
10% -42.8% 24% -26.5%
15% -48.3% 19% -33.6%
20% -53.4% 17% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$24 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$212
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage79d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL Cross Regional 2026: C9 vs DNS DNS 83¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 56¢ $130 $1 −$129 (-99%)
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Cloud9 $8 $0 −$8 (-96%)
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY FLY 29¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $241 +$48 +20%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $233 +$24 +10%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $186 +$48 +26%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $157 +$29 +18%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $134 +$23 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$21 -95%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Anyone's Legend qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 01 $28 +$9 +33%
Will Anyone's Legend win LPL 2026 Split 2? May 31 $46 −$45 -98%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this wee May 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Will "Gachiakuta" win Best New Series at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Aw May 23 $87 +$112 +129%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 22 $25 +$23 +91%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $37 −$36 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Dplus qualify for EWC 2026? May 13 $61 −$9 -15%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this May 11 $42 −$40 -96%
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Best Animation at the 2026 Cr May 07 $21 −$21 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 05 $39 −$38 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 05 $16 −$15 -98%
Will "Disgusting" be said during the CS BLAST Rivals Grand Final? May 04 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 01 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 01 $43 +$26 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 01 $52 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 01 $22 +$29 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 01 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 01 $8 +$4 +54%
Comey posts a video message on substack again by Friday? May 01 $21 −$13 -64%
Will there be a 1v5 ace clutch in the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 pla Apr 30 $1 $0 +4%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $39 −$37 -96%
Will "Sung Jinwoo (Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-)" wi Apr 30 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 30 $9 +$26 +282%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? Apr 28 $35 −$34 -97%
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Apr 28 $64 −$53 -83%
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Apr 16 $41 −$6 -15%
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 11? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY FLY 29¢ $26 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY FLY 29¢ $51 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 $5 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 $3 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: C9 vs DNS BUY DNS 83¢ $1 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $241 9h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $233 11h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $234 11h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $186 12h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 84¢ $157 15h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $134 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $22 3d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $106 3d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 3d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 11d
Will Anyone's Legend qualify to MSI 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $37 25d
Will Anyone's Legend win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 25¢ $42 25d
Will Anyone's Legend win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 26d
Will Anyone's Legend win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 26d
Will Anyone's Legend qualify to MSI 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $28 32d
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this wee BUY Yes 27¢ $2 32d
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this wee BUY Yes 27¢ $50 32d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 45¢ $37 43d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 14¢ $15 43d
Will Dplus qualify for EWC 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $52 44d
Will Dplus qualify for EWC 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $61 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.36 · official $2.36 (match) · 99 history records