Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

32 0x325b…baa9 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$4 (+4%) realized +$6 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-56.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+42.8%	+29.2%	100%	100%	+29.2%
≤30d	1	+42.8%	+29.2%	100%	100%	+29.2%
≤90d	1	+42.8%	+29.2%	100%	100%	+29.2%
all	3	-52.4%	-56.9%	33%	33%	+13.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.9%	33%	+13.2%
10%	-61.0%	33%	+2.4%
15%	-64.8%	33%	-7.5%
20%	-68.3%	0%	-16.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +43% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$2 · ×6.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized+$6

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage106d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$35	+$15	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Mar 09	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Mar 09	$2	−$2	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$30	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$20	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$51	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$35	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$3	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$2	105d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.15 · official $48.15 (match) · 6 history records