Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3256…9929 world 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$21
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$9
politics 22% $0
other 21% −$4
sports 13% −$3
economics 2% $0
finance 1% −$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 73 +0.3% -9.3% 32% 1% -9.7%
all 99 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 70
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage307d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $124 $127 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $233 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $124 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $125 −$2 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $138 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $125 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $125 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $131 −$7 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $262 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $131 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $274 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $271 −$3 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $564 −$11 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $134 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $133 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $400 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $10 +$3 +30%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $431 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $154 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $134 +$6 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $134 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $136 −$3 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 22 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $140 −$4 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $221 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $146 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $12 −$1 -5%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $299 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $142 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $141 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $203 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $299 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $440 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $113 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $157 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $142 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $286 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $18 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $3 $0 -9%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $124 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $124 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $124 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $56 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $102 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $124 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $124 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $44 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $79 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $125 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $138 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $138 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $106 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $115 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $27 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $99 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $105 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $20 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $10 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $9 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $125 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $125 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $124 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $131 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.28 · official $128.14 (match) · 415 history records