Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x3255…ffb9
sports · 130 markets active 2h ago
6.5score
+$446 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$459 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$66
Realized+$459
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses74 / 53
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions3
Markets (closed)127 / 130
History coverage58d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$100
14 days+$105
30 days+$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 28¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $15 +$14 +89%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $25 +$18 +72%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $25 +$23 +89%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 +$27 +89%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $31 +$20 +67%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $20 +$14 +69%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $20 +$20 +96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $20 +$17 +82%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 +$20 +96%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $31 +$27 +89%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $30 +$17 +56%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 07 $31 +$37 +120%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $20 +$15 +75%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $20 +$24 +118%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $20 +$15 +75%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $30 +$16 +54%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $31 +$29 +96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $15 +$18 +118%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $20 +$15 +72%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $10 +$9 +89%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 02 $20 +$11 +54%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $40 +$71 +178%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $15 +$11 +69%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $15 +$12 +78%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 31 $31 +$33 +108%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 30 $15 +$12 +82%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $31 +$26 +85%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $15 +$17 +113%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 May 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$467
finance 0% −$11
politics 0% −$9
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $31 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $15 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $25 24h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $25 24h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $31 24h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 34h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $31 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $31 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $20 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $20 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $20 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $30 3d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $20 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $31 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $31 4d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $31 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $20 7d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $20 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $20 7d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $20 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $31 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $31 9d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $15 10d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $31 10d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +23.0% +11.3% 67% 67% +10.5%
≤30d 84 +21.2% +9.6% 62% 62% +11.5%
≤90d 127 +12.5% +1.7% 58% 58% +5.6%
all 127 +12.5% +1.7% 58% 58% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 58% +5.6%
10% -8.0% 57% -4.5%
15% -16.9% 57% -13.7%
20% -25.0% 55% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.08 · official $66.09 (match) · 261 history records