Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x3251…c283
crypto · 1326 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,746 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,747 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$2,747
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses645 / 959
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1604 / 1326
History coverage54d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day63.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1604 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,808
7 days−$2,584
14 days−$2,599
30 days−$2,673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 49¢ 58¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$12 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $8 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $14 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 48m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 564 -50.9% -55.6% 25% 24% -59.0%
≤30d 740 -39.3% -45.1% 30% 30% -49.5%
≤90d 1604 -18.0% -25.8% 40% 39% -28.1%
all 1604 -18.0% -25.8% 40% 39% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 39% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 38% -35.0%
15% -39.4% 37% -41.3%
20% -45.3% 35% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.80 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records