Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
32 0x324d…c846 sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$48 (+29%) realized +$41 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day79.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$53
other 27% −$15
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 50% +29.7%
≤30d 12 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 50% +29.7%
≤90d 12 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 50% +29.7%
all 12 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 50% +29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.9% 50% +29.7%
10% ← realistic here -4.2% 50% +17.3%
15% -13.5% 42% +6.0%
20% -22.0% 33% -4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions22
Markets (closed)12 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day79.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Over 86¢ 86¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
France to score first vs. Senegal? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs DXA Esports 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Reyer Venezia 34¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Cloud Rising 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Betclic Apogee Esports 23¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx PortlandFire 15¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Young Ninjas 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Washington Mystics 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Toronto Tempo 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Scotland to win the second half? Yes 65¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$4 -41%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +170%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland to win the second half? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 2m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 46m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 46m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 46m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 46m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 47m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 47m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 47m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 48m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 48m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 48m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 48m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 48m
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 49m
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 49m
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 49m
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 49m
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 49m
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 49m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 50m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 50m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 50m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 50m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 51m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 51m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 51m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 51m
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 51m
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 51m
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.08 · official $66.08 (match) · 97 history records