Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x324a…3721
crypto · 140 markets active 9d ago
0.0score
+$11,048 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$30,418 · open −$19,370
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$210,240
Realized+$30,418
Unrealized−$19,370
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses116 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)135 / 140
History coverage272d
Avg bet$11,903
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 5 History 135 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$12,452
30 days−$12,452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 94¢ 86¢ $80,773 $73,923 −$6,850 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 92¢ $70,283 $69,088 −$1,195 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 91¢ 72¢ $51,525 $41,027 −$10,498 (-20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $22,000 $23,172 +$1,172 (+5%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $5,029 $3,030 −$1,999 (-40%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? No 83¢ $19,530 $0 −$19,530 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 02 $19,752 −$19,530 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $12,035 +$882 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $16,241 +$945 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $21,022 +$437 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $21,490 +$3,510 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $38,695 +$1,305 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? May 02 $5,014 +$190 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $930 +$70 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $1,967 +$33 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 27 $98,363 +$2,145 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 27 $84,547 +$926 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 27 $41,366 +$1,939 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 27 $8,310 +$217 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $9,000 −$40 -0%
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $1,835 −$1,831 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 04 $2,967 +$3 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 01 $15,963 +$735 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $22,971 +$1,320 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $30,000 +$343 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $49,458 +$542 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $50,732 +$545 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $58,877 +$2,055 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 19 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 19 $1,572 +$52 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 19 $450 +$91 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Mar 19 $135 +$40 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Mar 19 $1,475 −$122 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 19 $293 +$46 +16%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Mar 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Mar 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 18 $2,483 −$21 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 18 $600 +$11 +2%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Aca Mar 16 $27,823 +$2,499 +9%
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac Mar 16 $73,560 +$8,097 +11%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $10,000 +$789 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 13 $200 +$121 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 13 $100 +$71 +71%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 03 $500 +$21 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 03 $37,947 +$2,052 +5%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $163,124 +$10,375 +6%
Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Jan 23 $500 +$16 +3%
Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy A Jan 23 $5,809 +$265 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 20 $1,950 +$50 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 20 $970 +$30 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 20 $2,450 +$50 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 20 $1,969 +$31 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 49% −$19,582
economics 16% +$18,546
tech 9% +$3,268
culture 8% +$12,079
finance 6% +$3,171
politics 4% +$1,725
other 3% +$2,010
world 3% −$1,089
weather 1% −$9,079
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $22,109 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $4,414 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $4,903 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $302 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $322 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $20,106 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $754 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $20,098 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $10,060 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $355 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $1,105 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $20 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $105 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $29 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $97 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $2,282 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $225 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $383 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $611 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $94 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $2,308 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $3,708 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $635 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $635 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $9,270 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $8,551 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $1,878 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 76¢ $31 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $3,609 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $18,991 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -10.8% -19.3% 83% 17% -18.3%
≤90d 38 -19.5% -27.2% 68% 13% -8.9%
all 135 +1.0% -8.6% 86% 25% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 25% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 10% -16.4%
15% -25.3% 6% -24.5%
20% -32.7% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210,240.25 · official $210,240.25 (match) · 2843 history records