Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x324a…1617 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+24%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$142
other 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.7% +20.0% 60% 60% +26.4%
≤30d 5 +32.7% +20.0% 60% 60% +26.4%
≤90d 5 +32.7% +20.0% 60% 60% +26.4%
all 5 +32.7% +20.0% 60% 60% +26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.0% 60% +26.4%
10% +8.6% 60% +14.3%
15% -1.9% 40% +3.3%
20% -11.5% 40% -6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$1 · ×34.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×51.54 per $1 lost it wins $51.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $212 +$57 +27%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 +$52 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 $0 -4%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $61 +$33 +54%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $213 15m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 61¢ $132 55m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 44¢ $57 56m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 61¢ $51 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 61¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 5h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 6h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 6h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 7h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 7h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 8h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 8h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 18¢ $4 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 24¢ $5 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 21¢ $9 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 22¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records